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Cyclones Downs, Corals Up Except in Glasgow – Watts Up With That?

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Reposted from Jennifer Marohasy’s blog.

November 4, 2021Byjennifer

It is impossible to reconcile the official statistics and what is under-the-water with the media reporting including the reporting from Glasgow. There are meant to be more cyclones and less coral, but we have quite the reverse according to the official statistics. It is also making no sense that those who purport to care so much about the Great Barrier Reef still havent visited it. Then there are those who have visited it once, and then there are those who have visited it but never actually got in the water. Some of them are in Glasgow.

It was not for nothing that former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull he apparently visited Magnetic Island some years ago but never got in the water approved a A$443 million grant to the tiny Great Barrier Reef Foundation. As far as I can tell it is paid out in little bits to all those in proximity who are prepared to lament how the corals are dying. Ive meet so many who have received something, and so the useful idiots are paid off by the special people now in Glasgow.

On the eve of Glasgow, the same foundation put out comment:

Insufficient global action on climate change is taking a serious toll on the health of our Great Barrier Reef and coral reefs around the world. The facts are clear coral reefs and their communities are on the front line. We know current climate change commitments dont go far enough to protect them and we know this is the critical decade in which to act with urgency. Next months UN Climate Change Conference COP26 will be a pivotal moment in the global response to climate change.

Cyclones are a major problem for corals. They must be increasing.

On Tuesday 13th October 2020, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology put out a media release Tropical Cyclone seasonal outlook for The Coral Sea in which it was acknowledged that, and I quote:

Recent decades have seen a decline in the number of tropical cyclones in our region.

Bureau climatologist, Greg Browning, went on to explain that this summer is likely to buck that trend, and that:

On average Australia sees 9 to 11 tropical cyclones each year, with 4 crossing the coast.

Cyclones can be devastating to coral reefs. Huge waves pound relentlessly smashing branching and fan corals. Sponges and squirts are upended. Massive Porites can be lifted and thrown metres sometimes beyond the reef proper and onto the beach.

Given the Great Barrier Reef, as one ecosystem comprising nearly 3,000 individual reefs stretching for more than 2,000 kilometres, cyclone damaged areas can almost always be found somewhere. A coral reef that is mature and spectacular today, may be smashed by a cyclone tomorrow. So, Im always in a hurry to visit my next reef particularly given all the modelling suggesting an inevitable increase in the number of cyclones and an inevitable decline in coral cover.

Yet!

The 202021 Australian region cyclone season was another below average season, producing a total of just 8 tropical cyclones with just 3 of these categorised as severe. So since records began it is a case of less cyclones and less severe cyclones which must be good for the corals.

The Bureau has not updated this chart since the 2016/2017 season. The trend continues a downward trajectory with just 8 tropical cyclones last season (2020/2021) with 3 categorised as severe. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

Perhaps not surprisingly we are also seeing an increase in coral cover, and this is exactly what the latest report from the Australian Institute of Marine Science concludes. According to their Long-Term Monitoring Program (LTMP) based on surveys of 127 reefs conducted between August 2020 and April 2021, and I quote:

In 2021, widespread recovery was underway, largely due to increases in fast growing Acropora corals.

Survey reefs experienced low levels of acute stressors over the past 12 months with no prolonged high temperatures or major cyclones. Numbers of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish on survey reefs have generally decreased; however, there remain ongoing outbreaks on some reefs in the Southern GBR.

On the Northern GBR, region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and had continued to increase to 27% from the most recent low point in 2017.

On the Central GBR region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and had increased to 26% in 2021.

Region-wide hard coral cover on reefs in the Southern GBR was high and had increased to 39% in 2021.

More information at https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2020-2021

Meanwhile former US President Barack Obama who has never ever actually visited the Great Barrier Reef confirmed he will attend the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow. He is apparently meeting young climate change activists and highlighting their work around the world. Im wondering when he will bring them to see the corals. The closest he has got, so far, is to Brisbane back in November 2014. He gave a speech at my old university lamenting the parlous state of the corals and claiming he wanted to take his daughters to see the corals before they were all gone.

But. We are still waiting. As far as I can tell, like Malcolm Turnbull, Barack Obama frightens the children about that which they have never actually seen or experienced with his own eyes and with opinion that often does not even accord with the available statistics.

Former US President Bill Clinton hasnt made it to Glasgow, but he did visit the Great Barrier Reef back in November 1996. He apparently spent a short hour snorkelling at a reef off Port Douglas.

If I didnt know something about the scientific method, greenhouse gases, the Great Barrier Reef, and that foundation, I would be inclined to believe there was a crisis and that there really was something I should do about it. As it is, I know that coral bleaching occurs as part of a natural cycle that will repeat irrespective of any agreements made in Glasgow. I also know as fact that there has been no increase in the incidence of cyclones and that coral cover is good and improving. It is also fact that coral reefs would benefit if there was rising sea levels because they could keep growing-up and also that they grow faster as sea temperatures increase. Did you know that there are arguably more colourful corals and even better coral cover in waters just a few degrees warmers? The warmer waters are just to the north of Australia around New Guinea and Indonesia.

***
The feature image shows a blue Acropora, one of the genera most susceptible to devastation by cyclones and one that has done well at many reefs over recent years. The photograph was taken at Pixie Reef just to the north of Cairns by me.

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Climate Change Threatens Cranberries – Watts Up With That?

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Next installment of the Rud Ridiculae series.

By Rud Istvan

Once you know the messaging methods climate alarmists use, they become very predictable and easy to ridicule.

Weather events become climate. Too hot, too cold, too wet, too dryit is all evil anthropogenic CO2 caused climate change.

Alarmists invariably also have climate change threaten important seasonal customs. Since this week is Thanksgiving in the US, it has to be threatened by climate change. And right on cue, we learn from (among others) WaPo, NatGeo, YaleClimateChange, CBS, and Yahoo News that indeed it is; climate change threatens the traditional Thanksgiving New England cranberry garnish.

National Geographics illustrated article is captioned, Climate Change is coming for New Englands cranberries. It says hotter summers and wimpier winters are the culprits. Ah, good old anthropogenic global warming (aka AGW).

On the other hand, Daily Progress says that colder winters are the culprit. Which explains why anthropogenic global warming morphed to climate change.

WaPo says the problem is late spring frosts and mild fall harvest conditions. Who knew CO2 could shift the seasons, miraculously overcoming the enormous inertia in Earths orbital tilt? Alarmists claim to rely on climate science. Dodgy science.

Yale says the culprit is shifts in precipitation, both too much and not enough. Cranberries, you see, need the Goldilocks climate before AGW.

Whatever the details, just remember climate change is bad for cranberries.

A quick google of the topic turned up no less than 11 different November 2021 articles/videos about climate endangering cranberries on just the first page of the search results. In the first two pages, it also turned up 7 similar articles from November 2020. Cranberry alarm has become a Thanksgiving tradition!

I got curious as to how long cranberry alarm has been annually trotted out around Thanksgiving. Well, at least since 21 November 2012 (I did not bother to dig further back in the google search results), where an organization named ecoRI News (at ecori.org) wrote about cranberries being hit by climate whiplash. It said cranberry bogs need acid peat soils, abundant fresh water, and sandtrue, and Cape Cod has them in abundance. But bogs are geography, not climate, related. Then the article said cranberries also need winter, spring, summer, and fall—all four of which New England also has in abundance. Not clear what the dreaded cranberry climate whiplash exactly is; ordinary whiplash comes from car wrecks, which most climate change science certainly resemble.

Or, as my favorite old Richard Lindzen slide showed 13 years ago, you cannot discern climate change in Boston, Massachusetts—near Thanksgivings ground zero exactly 400 years ago. But you can sure discern its seasons. So the Massachusetts climate whiplashed cranberries remain thankfully plentiful.

Once you know the messaging methods climate alarmists use, they become very predictable and easy to ridicule.

Weather events become climate. Too hot, too cold, too wet, too dryit is all evil anthropogenic CO2 caused climate change.

Alarmists invariably also have climate change threaten important seasonal customs. Since this week is Thanksgiving in the US, it has to be threatened by climate change. And right on cue, we learn from (among others) WaPo, NatGeo, YaleClimateChange, CBS, and Yahoo News that indeed it is; climate change threatens the traditional Thanksgiving New England cranberry garnish.

National Geographics illustrated article is captioned, Climate Change is coming for New Englands cranberries. It says hotter summers and wimpier winters are the culprits. Ah, good old anthropogenic global warming (aka AGW).

On the other hand, Daily Progress says that colder winters are the culprit. Which explains why anthropogenic global warming morphed to climate change.

WaPo says the problem is late spring frosts and mild fall harvest conditions. Who knew CO2 could shift the seasons, miraculously overcoming the enormous inertia in Earths orbital tilt? Alarmists claim to rely on climate science. Dodgy science.

Yale says the culprit is shifts in precipitation, both too much and not enough. Cranberries, you see, need the Goldilocks climate before AGW.

Whatever the details, just remember climate change is bad for cranberries.

A quick google of the topic turned up no less than 11 different November 2021 articles/videos about climate endangering cranberries on just the first page of the search results. In the first two pages, it also turned up 7 similar articles from November 2020. Cranberry alarm has become a Thanksgiving tradition!

I got curious as to how long cranberry alarm has been annually trotted out around Thanksgiving. Well, at least since 21 November 2012 (I did not bother to dig further back in the google search results), where an organization named ecoRI News (at ecori.org) wrote about cranberries being hit by climate whiplash. It said cranberry bogs need acid peat soils, abundant fresh water, and sandtrue, and Cape Cod has them in abundance. But bogs are geography, not climate, related. Then the article said cranberries also need winter, spring, summer, and fall—all four of which New England also has in abundance. Not clear what the dreaded cranberry climate whiplash exactly is; ordinary whiplash comes from car wrecks, which most climate change science certainly resemble.

Or, as my favorite old Richard Lindzen slide showed 13 years ago, you cannot discern climate change in Boston, Massachusetts—near Thanksgivings ground zero exactly 400 years ago. But you can sure discern its seasons. So the Massachusetts climate whiplashed cranberries remain thankfully plentiful.

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Help, what is happening with our universities? – Watts Up With That?

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By Prof. Dr. IR. Guus Berkhout

This is an English translation of a letter by Guus Berkhout of CLINTEL that was published in De Telegraaf, the largest newspaper in The Netherlands earlier this week.

In recent years we have seen the strangest things happening to our universities. Professors must be extremely careful about what they teach. If they present scientific results that do not fit the ideology of activist movements, their lives are made difficult and they even run the risk of being excommunicated. Joining the consensus is by far the safest. The Boards of Governors do not protect their professors; on the contrary, they are solidly behind the activists.

The University of Amsterdam believes that every student should become woke. It is no longer about developing talents, but about making white, heterosexual, serious students feel guilty. After all, their ancestors have blood on their hands and they are the new generation of oppressors. Radboud University in Nijmegen has bowed to climate activism and has just decided that all students must be taught the sustainability narrative. The climate crisis is central to this, whether that is scientifically correct or not, that does not matter in Nijmegen.

My own university, TU Delft, has recently adopted the fashionable label climate university. This university also indoctrinates its students by telling them that there is a man-made climate crisis that must be solved with solar panels, windmills and biomass plants. Criticism is not tolerated. But I say to the Board of Governors, surely the university must be a sanctuary for the unbiased exchange of knowledge? How free is the discussion at TU Delft if everyone is pushed into an ideological straightjacket? Do you still want to send your child to such a university?

Honorary Doctorate
But the worst is yet to come. TU Delft has just announced that it will award EU Vice President Frans Timmermans an honorary doctorate (doctoratus honoris causa), because of the extraordinary achievements he has made with his energy transition policy. But I say to the Board of Governors, Frans Timmermans has done untold damage with his energy policy! He is the great champion of biomass plants, which have been destroying unique ecosystems for many years by massive logging.

Timmermans also believes that sustainability can be achieved with windmills. A technical university such as Delft University of Technology knows perfectly well that such a policy is technically and scientifically nonsensical! Hard figures show that wind farms incur heavy losses; their operating costs are seriously underestimated. Partly due to Timmermans policy, energy prices are skyrocketing. And then grant such a person an honorary doctorate? It is an insult to all Delft alumni.

Intertwined interests
Universities have moved in a direction unworthy of science. The interests of science and politics have become strongly intertwined. As a result, critical thinking and truth-finding have not been the starting point for years. Boards of Directors should bear in mind that universities are supposed to be breeding grounds for new ideas. This requires an inspiring research and teaching environment, where new concepts are welcomed and students can develop their talents. Filtering out bad ideas should be done by exposition, argument and observation, not by muzzling creative minds.

Guus Berkhout is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) and cofounder of CLINTEL.

Editor’s note: “critical thinking and truth-finding have not been the starting point for years.” How very true.

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President Bidens Latest Oil Directives Lead To Nowhere Very Fast – Watts Up With That?

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Reposted from Forbes

Tilak DoshiTilak Doshi

.
Tilak Doshi

Millions of American consumers, already struggling with the highest inflation rates in over 30 years, will be hitting the road this Thanksgiving weekend and paying the highest gasoline prices since 2012. They might well ponder on Lewis Carrols fantastical novel Through the Looking Glass, when Alice keeps running but remains in the same spot and she tells the Red Queen “Well, in our country you’d generally get to somewhere elseif you run very fast for a long time, as we’ve been doing.” “A slow sort of country!” says the Queen. “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

Raiding the US Oil Stockpile

In President Bidens America, it seems, oil policy keeps morphing as fast as it can, but with scant achievement. Indeed, it has proved regressive for the country. Energy analysts tracking US oil policy since President Bidens inauguration find themselves deeper and deeper into the absurdities of Alices Wonderland. The latest in President Bidens approach to soaring fuel prices is to release crude oil from its strategic crude oil reserves. This marks the first time in decades that a sitting US president has resorted to releasing its emergency oil stockpile to handle market-determined rising fuel prices. The stockpile, to remind the reader, was set up in concert with other members of the International Energy Agency as a national security instrument to meet unexpected supply shocks from wars (such as Libya in 2011) and extreme weather events (Hurricane Katrina in 2005).

Bidens announcement on Tuesday that the United States will release 50 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try to tame fuel prices was in coordination with small stockpile releases from China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain. Chinas Foreign Ministry spokesperson, it should be noted, said the country will arrange a release of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) according to its own actual needs, declining to comment if it would be releasing crude in the coordinated effort led by the United States. Goldman Sachs GS -1.8% called the US-led coordinated release of crude oil which may amount to some 70 to 80 million barrels a drop in the ocean for a global market that is running at about 100 million barrels per day. Hours after the announcement the international bellwether Brent crude oil prices rose by over $2.00 a barrel, since the market had expected a more substantive release when it was first mooted by the Biden administration.

Blaming OPEC+

The Biden administrations SPR release follows its repeated high profile requests for increased production from the OPEC+ group. Back in August, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan had criticized big oil producers in OPEC+ which include Saudi Arabia and Russia for what he said were insufficient crude (oil) production levels. At a critical moment in the global recovery, this is simply not enough. In a TV interview on November 6th, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm responded to a question on what could be done about the US gasoline price increases by stating that Oil is a global market. It is controlled by a cartel. That cartel is called OPEC, and they made a decision yesterday that they were not going to increase beyond what they were already planning. The sheer effrontery of castigating the OPEC+ oil producers groups for not increasing its planned output schedule while the Biden administration is doing its best to hobble domestic oil and gas production in its climate change crusade did not seem to concern the Energy Secretary.   

In early November, President BidensaidI do think that the idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not, is not, right. This is after Biden called Saudi Arabia a pariah state when he was on the campaign trail. Adding further insult after having won the Presidency, Biden refused to communicate with the de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,insistingthat he would only be speaking to the frail and aging King Salman as his appropriate counterpart. Unsurprisingly, Crown Prince Salman, kingpin of OPEC policy, ismore concernedwith global oil supply and demand fundamentals than the political needs of a flailing US President worried about high gasoline prices and sinking popularity polls. The OPEC+ group, wary of overshooting scheduled oil supply increases and risking an oil price crash when the resurgence of covid cases in Europe and China threatens to mute global oil demand growth, has repeatedly ignored Bidens requests.

…And US Oil And Gas Producers

Having blamed OPEC+ for high US fuel prices, the Biden administration turned next to another familiar whipping boy: the US oil and gas producers. Last week, President Biden wrote to the Federal Trade Commission to probe possible illegal conduct in US gasoline markets, citing mounting evidence of anti-consumer behaviour by oil and gas companies.  White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki asserted at a press briefing that we will continue to press oil companies who have made record profits and are overseeing what we consider to be price gouging out there. Calling Bidens demand for an FTC investigation a distraction, the American Petroleum Institute retorted Rather than launching investigations on markets that are regulated and closely monitored on a daily basis or pleading with OPEC to increase supply, we should be encouraging the safe and responsible development of American-made oil and natural gas.

In what must surely be the highlight of our tour of Bidens Energy Wonderland, the President offered these words of wisdom: For the hundreds of thousands of folks who bought one of those electric cars, theyre going to save $800 to $1000 in fuel costs this year, referring to the $112,595 electric Hummer pickup he test drove at a General Motors GM -1.4% factory in Detroit earlier this month. It did not seem to occur to President Biden that the average American households struggling to put a turkey dinner on the table or gas in their tank this Thanksgiving weekend might not have $100,000 to spare.

Further Down Alices Rabbit Hole

Since its inception, the Biden administration has done just about everything to wage war on US oil and gas. President Biden signed an Executive Order in his second day in office to protect public health and the environment and restoring science to tackle the climate crisis, cancelling the $7 billion Keystone XL pipeline. A series of executive orders prioritized fighting climate change across all levels of government, halted all new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and began an obstructive review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Blaming OPEC+ and US oil and gas producers in rapid succession and then following up with an ill-considered release of oil from its stockpile to handle self-inflicted fuel price increases mark this administrations disastrous management of energy affairs.  
The Biden Administration’s Attack On Oil And Gas Is Destroying LivesOn his first day in office, Biden waged a war on the oil and gas industry, effectively destroying thousands of w…

For the hapless American consumer, running fast enough to keep ahead of the US energy policy not only not keeps him in the same spot, as Alice found out in her adventures, but may well push him further down the rabbit hole.

Tilak Doshi

I have worked in the oil and gas sector as an economist in both private industry and in think tanks, in Asia, the Middle East and the US over the past 25 years. I focus on global energy developments from the perspective of Asian countries that remain large markets for oil, gas and coal. I have written extensively on the areas of economic development, environment and energy economics. My publications include Singapore in a Post-Kyoto World: Energy, Environment and the Economy published by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (2015). I won the 1984 Robert S. McNamara Research Fellow award of the World Bank and received my Ph.D. in Economics in 1992.

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